Izmit Earthquake on Seismic Hazards in Istanbul
نویسندگان
چکیده
We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul—an urban center of 10 million people—from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years, and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M=7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62±15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32±12% during the next decade. Parsons, T., A. Barka, et al. (2000). Influence of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake on seismic hazards in Istanbul. The 1999 Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes: Preliminary results. A. Barka, O. Kozaci, S. Akyuz and E. Altunel. Istanbul, Istanbul Tech. Univ. Press: 295-310. Manuscript accepted by JGR 2001
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